There’s arguably no greater mystery in the land of punditry
than Donald Trump’s continued dominance in the polls, both nationally and in
early primary states.
Political analysts on the right and left are befuddled as to
how a man who had a public feud with Rosie O’Donnell replete with sophomoric
insult swinging is the Republican frontrunner in an election that most
Republicans and many neutral analysts believe is eminently winnable for the
GOP.
It’s inexplicable. Except it isn’t.
Donald Trump has been on every side of every issue for most
of his public life. He has supported single payer healthcare (a far more
radical version of ObamaCare) and most incredibly, he has publicly praised Hillary
Clinton AND given her money. Hillary Clinton. The presumptive Democrat nominee
and the most prominent Republican villain.
Yet, he’s leading in the polls.
Every time we predict his demise, he emerges unscathed or
even stronger. Surely his shameful smear of John McCain’s heroism would sink
his campaign. Didn’t happen. Well how about his terrible first debate
performance? Actually, a plurality (not a majority) of GOP voters said he was
the winner. Ok, surely, his attack on respected and well liked Fox News anchor
Megyn Kelly would be his Waterloo? Yeah, no. He was still far ahead in the
polls.
Poll numbers are beginning to trickle in post second debate.
We won’t know for sure if he remains untouchable or if it’s the beginning of
the end for Trump—a beginning pretty much everyone thought would commence a
long time ago—until next week.
Trump appears to be impervious to the pitfalls that have
traditionally destroyed campaigns. In
fact, campaigns have been sunk by missteps and gaffes far less egregious than
Trump’s. In 1980, Ted Kennedy never recovered after he couldn’t articulate why
he wants to be president. A messaging blunder to be sure, but infinitely less
cringe worthy than Donald Trump retweeting a vile Megyn Kelly insult. Or any of
his other antics for that matter.
As counterintuitive as Trump’s rise is, it does have a
rationale. An excellent CNN documentary, "Evocateur," about 80's bellicose
political TV host Morton Downey Jr. indirectly elucidates the Trump appeal.
As a brilliant businessman and self-promoter (he is
unquestionably both, his Atlantic City bankruptcies not withstanding) Trump
gets the niche entertainment formula. He understands that the quickest path to
celebrity is not to make everyone like
you, but to carve out a niche of people who love you. This is the classic branding strategy that Trump excels
at.
Trump's niche is bold, unapologetic populism. Never back
down, never show hesitation or reflection. Tell it like it is, never apologize,
and above everything else, be entertaining or really funny.
It's the Morton Downey Jr. brand, and that brand has a big fan base.
Howard Stern and all the other shock jocks are the disk
jockey versions of Morton Downey Jr. Not in terms of political leanings
(conservatives and liberals listen to Stern), but in terms of here's the truth
as I see it, and here's why anyone who disagrees with me is wrong and stupid.
Stern was the first disk jockey to embody the Morton brand.
Trump is the first famous politician to embody the Morton brand.
The other aspect of Trump’s appeal is his “Make America great
again” campaign theme. As any political consultant will tell you, a strong campaign
theme is key to winning elections. As a branding guru, Trump understand that,
and so he’s running with a theme that resonates with a significant bloc of the
GOP base that thinks Obama has precipitated America’s decline.
His brashness, political incorrectness, cockiness, and even
crassness are all refreshing qualities to voters who have come to resent and
even hate the tedious predictability of the political class. Coupled with the inherent
attractiveness of his underlying theme, Trump is able to maintain a passionate
and loyal base of support that doesn’t care about any of the things that his
detractors point to as proof of Trump’s un-presidential demeanor or utter lack
of principled conviction.
And then there’s the three-pronged message that buttresses
his goal to “make America great again”: immigration, trade, and bravado. Trump
promises to build a wall and have Mexico pay for it, renegotiate current free
trade deals, and force his will on friends and enemies alike. In other words,
he is going to solve the immigration problem (something that a significant
portion of the GOP base cares about deeply), end free trade deals that Trump
alleges are hurting the American worker (this was a major theme in both the
Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan populist campaigns, and many conservatives don’t
buy the mainstream conservative argument that free trade is good), and act like
a tough guy winner doing these things the whole time.
These are the traits that make Trump so appealing to a large
enough faction of voters to make him the frontrunner in a preposterously
crowded field. They don’t care that he is prone to personal insults, or that he’s
not a principled conservative. They don’t even care that he donated money to
Clinton and the Democrats. None of those weaknesses rank as high in terms of
issues his supporters care about as Trump’s anti politically correct bravado,
the impression that he’s not beholden to anyone, and his stance on immigration
and trade.
Voters almost always choose imperfect candidates with whom
they agree on some issues, disagree on others. What ultimately determines who
you vote for is issue intensity: how much do you care about issue X compared to
issue Y. For Trump voters, immigration is the central issue. So as long as he
toes their line on immigration (build a wall, enforce the law) they’ll give him
a pass on all his other positions, even if those positions directly violate
conservative principles.
Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, but his
sustained surge is explained by a combination of niche branding, a powerful campaign
theme, skilled messaging, and personality.
